China-PAR
Prediction for ASCVD Risk in China (China-PAR)
#10
coverage rank
China201610-year and lifetimeAtherosclerotic CVD (CHD death, nonfatal MI, fatal/nonfatal stroke)10 inputs
Chinese adults >=35 without ASCVD (pooled Chinese cohorts)
9
atlas factors covered
7
strongly-evidenced (A/B)
7
of 15 categories
Strengths
- Calibrated to Chinese cohorts with geographic (North/South, urban/rural) adjustment and waist circumference
- Predicts ASCVD (CHD + stroke) with 10-year and lifetime horizons; includes family history
- Markedly better calibrated than PCE in Chinese populations
Weaknesses
- Population-specific to China; not transportable without recalibration
- No lipid subfractions beyond TC/HDL, no renal, imaging, or inflammatory inputs
- Relies on self-reported family history and regional strata
Input variables (10)
| Input | Maps to atlas factor | Category | Grade | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Age | Age | Demographic & Social | A | |
| Sex | Sex | Demographic & Social | C | |
| Treated/untreated systolic BP | Systolic blood pressure | Blood Pressure & Hemodynamics | A | |
| Total cholesterol | Total cholesterol | Lipids & Lipoproteins | A | |
| HDL cholesterol | HDL cholesterol | Lipids & Lipoproteins | A | |
| Current smoking | Cigarette smoking | Lifestyle & Behavioral | A | |
| Diabetes mellitus | Type 2 diabetes mellitus | Glycemic & Metabolic | A | |
| Waist circumference | Waist circumference | Anthropometric & Body Composition | A | |
| Geographic region (North/South, urban/rural) | — derived / not in atlas | — | — | population/geography calibration term, not an individual factor |
| Family history of ASCVD | Family history of cardiovascular disease | Genetic & Family History | D |
References
- Predicting the 10-Year Risks of Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease in Chinese Population (China-PAR) — Circulation 2016 · PMID 27682885