AHA PREVENT
AHA Predicting Risk of CVD EVENTs equations
#3
coverage rank
United States202410-year and 30-yearTotal CVD (ASCVD + heart failure)14 inputs
Adults 30-79, general population (no prior CVD)
12
atlas factors covered
10
strongly-evidenced (A/B)
7
of 15 categories
Strengths
- Sex-specific, race-free (removed race, uses region/SDI instead) reducing race-based miscalibration
- Adds kidney (eGFR, optional UACR) and metabolic (optional HbA1c) axes absent from PCE
- Predicts total CVD including heart failure, not just ASCVD
- Offers 10- and 30-year horizons; derived and validated in large contemporary US cohorts (>6 million)
- Better calibrated to modern event rates than PCE (which overestimated)
Weaknesses
- Omits Lp(a), hs-CRP/inflammatory markers, and family history despite strong evidence
- No coronary artery calcium or other subclinical imaging input
- Optional UACR/HbA1c/SDI often unavailable in routine primary care, so base model dominates use
- Still restricted to a small set of traditional factors; most graded A/B atlas factors are unused
Input variables (14)
| Input | Maps to atlas factor | Category | Grade | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Age | Age | Demographic & Social | A | |
| Sex | Sex | Demographic & Social | C | |
| Total cholesterol | Total cholesterol | Lipids & Lipoproteins | A | |
| HDL cholesterol | HDL cholesterol | Lipids & Lipoproteins | A | |
| Systolic blood pressure | Systolic blood pressure | Blood Pressure & Hemodynamics | A | |
| Antihypertensive treatment | — derived / not in atlas | — | — | treatment/medication-use variable; not a factor in atlas |
| Diabetes mellitus | Type 2 diabetes mellitus | Glycemic & Metabolic | A | |
| Current smoking | Cigarette smoking | Lifestyle & Behavioral | A | |
| eGFR (CKD-EPI 2021) | Estimated glomerular filtration rate | Renal & Electrolyte | A | |
| BMI | Body mass index | Anthropometric & Body Composition | A | |
| Statin use | — derived / not in atlas | — | — | treatment/medication-use variable; not a factor in atlas |
| UACR (optional, full model) | Albuminuria | Renal & Electrolyte | A | |
| HbA1c (optional, full model) | Hemoglobin A1c | Glycemic & Metabolic | A | |
| Social Deprivation Index (optional) | Social deprivation | Demographic & Social | C |
References
- Development and Validation of the American Heart Association's PREVENT Equations — Circulation 2024 · PMID 37947085